Stone Cold Locks

Better Bettor has lessons and topics on what helps you become a better bettor, but we get it sometimes you just want some locks and that’s why we teamed up with Brandon Kravitz to bring you his Stone-Cold Locks for College Football!

Memphis +7 @ FSU- Like taking candy from a baby. What are we doing here with FSU as a touchdown favorite? This team is awful. They have no redeeming qualities. And its not like Mike Norvell has been rallying the troops, this sort of goes back to last season. As a favorite, Mike Norvell is 1-5 against the spread in his last 6 games. On the other side, Memphis has been a great cover. 5-0 in their last 5 games. And perhaps a bit of revenge on their minds as well since Norvell hightailed it out of Memphis to take the Florida State job. This one almost feels too easy, but I’m not going to overthink it, Memphis +7, lock it up!

UCF +1 @ TCU- I’ve see-sawed on this one for a few days, and so did the betting market. UCF was a 2 point underdog when the week began, then the line flipped to UCF as a 2.5 point favorite, now back to UCF +1. The betting market can’t make up its mind, but I can. UCF is the better team here. Let’s not forget, UCF started to catch up to the Big 12 at the end of last year, 3-1 in their last 4 Big 12 games, and one of those wins was a big one against Oklahoma State. The biggest reason to back UCF though is the run game, TCU’s defense isn’t setup to stop the inside zone-read, and that’s what UCF specializes in. RJ Harvey is going to be a nightmare for this team and I love the improvement week over week I saw from KJ Jefferson. Gus Malzahn thrives in the underdog role, so even though its just a point, still value on the Knights in their first real test of the season. UCF +1, lock it up!

Seahawks -3.5 @ Patriots- The Patriots shocked the world and ruined everyone’s survivor pools last week. Now everyone thinks this team is a tough out again. I’m not buying it. Seattle messed around with the Broncos and still almost covered the spread, this is a really good team, with highly skilled offensive players across the board, a brilliant defensive mind as their head coach, and they’re only favored by 3.5. Rhamondre Stevenson was a tackle-breaking beast last week and the Bengals couldn’t stop turning the ball over. You know what else the Pats produced? How about 121 yards passing and their leading receiver was #2 TE Austin Hooper. This is not a real football team, happy to fade them after an unlikely win. Seahawks minus the points, lock it up!

Cowboys -6 vs Saints- Another classic week 1 overreaction, I’ve been saying it all week, the Saints are fraudulent. And this week they face the team that might be able to expose that as well as anyone. Derek Carr is a pretty good QB with a clean pocket, and we saw that last week, he threw 3 touchdowns and 4 incompletions, it was a perfect game. But Carr is a different player when he has to deal with a muddy pocket, and the Cowboys bring a couple of sacking savants off the edges of that defense. Also, this is where you bet Dallas. At home as a favorite, since 2021, the most profitable team in the NFL. 64% bet right here. Cowboys -6, lock it up!

Bengals +6 @ Chiefs- My week 1 overreaction trend leads us here, because this is the biggest of all. Cincinnati catching nearly a touchdown because of the ugliest loss of week 1 and water bottle issues for Joe Burrow. Happy to ignore all of that. Action Network does these ‘luck rankings’ it shows the teams that just didn’t have the ball bounce their way week to week. The Bengals were the 2^nd most unlucky team from week 1. They had no business losing that game and I think we view this spread way different if they win. At the same time, Burrow owns this rivalry. He’s 3-1 against Mahomes in his career. And more than anything, you just don’t back Mahomes as a big favorite, he covers at a rate of 75% when he’s a dog or a favorite of 3 or less. Anything bigger than 3…48% over his career. Bengals bounce back, +6, lock it up!

Steelers/Broncos UNDER 36.5- Justin Fields and Bo Nix. ‘Nuf said. Bo Nix was wildly inaccurate in week 1, doubtful that corrects itself in one week, and Justin Fields has been the most inaccurate QB since coming into the league. We saw what this Steelers team can do to an opposing QB last week, I think they’ll be holding teams to 10 or less frequently this season. But what makes this a good bet is the fact that Denver’s stadium has been allergic to points for some reason. Bronco home games have gone under the total 64% of the time in the past 9 years. Take the under, plug your nose, and go for a walk. Under 36.5, lock it up!

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