Stone Cold Locks

Better Bettor has lessons and topics on what helps you become a better bettor, but we get it sometimes you just want some locks and that’s why we teamed up with Brandon Kravitz to bring you his Stone-Cold Locks for College Football!

Michigan +7.5 vs Texas- The Longhorns are the real deal, this team is stacked, and they are going to smack some teams around in college football this year. Even some good ones. But this line is simply out of hand. Michigan still has a lot to figure out with this QB position, but catching a touchdown+ in the Big House, with that defense?! Give me a break. This is only the 2^nd time since 2020 that the Wolverines have been underdogs in their own building. If they can avoid turnovers on offense, their defense is good enough to keep this within a touchdown. Big Blue +7.5, Lock it up!

Sam Houston State +21.5 @ UCF- When I first saw this line it caught my eye immediately, Sam Houston State @ only 3 touchdowns?! UCF and other real college football programs are usually 40 point favorites against teams like this. That was red flag number 1. Then, I started to dig in. Apparently Sam Houston is in Conference USA now. Ever since 2020, they’ve moved up the ranks in college football. They also have a JUCO transfer at QB who is considered one of the breakout stars in the conference, Hunter Watson. They also return a veteran offensive line and their defense was wreaking havoc in week 1 – albeit against Rice. All of this starts to bring things into focus, but what makes this a good bet is KJ Jefferson. What exactly did he show last week that would warrant being favored by 3 scores against a team that is not going to be a push over? Also, this is the classic Malzahn letdown spot. He’s 3-6 ATS against FBS competition when favored by double digits at home. Give me the Bearkats plus the points, lock it up!

Titans +4.5 @ Bears- This was the first bet I made this year. I am way higher on this Titans team than consensus, but on top of that, I’m beyond happy to fade the all-hype Hard Knocks Bears in game 1 of Caleb Williams career. Even if this Bears team turns out to be good, what are the odds it all comes together in week 1? Meanwhile, the Titans have retooled as well and one of the lowkey big moves of the offseason was on the defensive side of the ball @ Tennessee, when they added La’Jarius Sneed ahead of the NFL Draft. I would expect Caleb to force it, turn the ball over, and those factors make the Titans a very live dog. Also, here’s a fun trend for ya…rookie QB’s who were drafted #1 overall in week 1, how about 0-14-1 against the spread in the last 15. Major fade on the Bears, Titans +4.5, lock it up!

Raiders +3.5 @ Chargers- This is another one that’s been circled for the better part of a month. I think this Raiders team is going to be halfway decent, they already had a good d-line, which got even better in the offseason. They improved at QB with Gardner Minsew, who led the Colts to 9 wins last year. But there are two other big factors at play here. For one, the Chargers home field advantage is non-existent. In the last 10 years, they have the worst home record in the league against the spread. Raiders fans are going to be piling into SoFi, and Antonio Pierce was the most profitable coach in the league after week 9 of last season. 7-1-1 ATS after he took over. If that’s not enough, how about this? Divisional underdogs in week 1, 71% hit rate since 2014. Everything leans Vegas here. Lock it up!

Cowboys +2.5 @ Browns- The Browns might be the most overrated team in football and that’s saying something because the team their playing is usually in the running for that award every year. But Cleveland got by last year because they were the best defense in the league at home, which was odd, because they had one of the leagues worst defenses on the road. You figure that one of those 2 things is true, and the other is an anomaly, so I’ll let you decide for yourself. At home last year, the Browns faced an injured Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Purdy in the wind and rain without Deebo, Clayton Tune, Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields…are you picking up what I am putting down? Their defense was a fluke. Also, Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown a pass in over 300 days, what kind of rust is he gonna have to shake off? Found a trend to put the icing on the cake here: Non-conference games where the spread is between -3 and +3 for the home team, they are 3-16-1 ATS since 2015. Cowboys +2.5 is the play here, lock it up! 

Dolphins -3 vs Jags- This has the chance to be a classic. And originally I wasn’t going to bet on it, but then I had an epiphany…if you aren’t going to bet the Dolphins at home in September, when are you going to bet them? All the clarity I needed right there. We know Tua is a bad cold weather QB, but we have sunshine and humidity down in South Florida to start the year, and not only has Tua thrived in that situation, the Dolphins have historically played well at home in season openers. Tua is 15-3 straight up when the weather is 80 degrees or better and he’s at home. 18-8 against the spread at home no matter the temp! But the half point is key here, because I do think this Jags team is good, so even if you have to pay up for it (-120), its worth it for the insurance if the Phins win by 3. But this is where the Dolphins thrive, love them on Sunday, -3 ~ lock it up!

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